Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tsis ntev los no tau tawm los ntawm McKinSey, ib lub koom haum tshawb nrhiav chaw thoob ntiaj teb, tau taw qhia qhov kev nthuav dav ntawm kev nthuav dav ntawm lub sijhawm ntawm kev txawj ntse. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau hais tias ua ntej xyoo xaus ntawm 2020 Daim ntawv tshaj tawm "Optical Networking: Capturing tom ntej muaj nuj nqis" kwv yees ntau yam uas los ntawm 800GPS optical transceage yuav yog 40% qis dua li kev lag luam xav tau; Thiab los ntawm 2029, cov khoom siv sib txawv ntawm 1.6tbps transceivers kuj tseem yuav ncav cuag 30% rau 40%.
1. Lub hauv paus ua rau muaj qhov tsis txaus: ultra-loj-teev ai computing drives ua rau kev thov kom tau txais lasers
Lub hauv paus ua rau ntawm no "laser muaj teeb meem" lus dag nyob rau hauv kev thov ceev ceev rau kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws uas tau tsav los ntawm ultra-loj-teev suav los ntawm ai. McKinSey tau taw qhia tias los ntawm 2029, kev lag luam hyperscale yuav tsiv mus nyob rau 800gbps thiab saum toj no, ntawm uas 1% ntawm cov ntawv thov sib koom. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, sab pem hauv ntej-kawg yog chaw ua lag luam Nettropolitan kuj tseem nce toj kawg nkaus thiab ntau dua thiab ntau dua thiab ntau dua thiab Tam sim no, kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm cov chaw sib txuas network network siv 400gbps ZR / ZR + transceivers. Raws li AI kev cob qhia thiab cov kev xav tau muaj ntau dua ntawm kev sib txuas lus tsawg dua thiab kev nqis peev ntau dua thiab cov ntaub ntawv qib siab txuas ntxiv mus txuas cov ntaub ntawv faib cov pawg. McKinSey kwv yees tias qhov no yuav tsav nrawm nrawm ntawm kev ua lag luam: los ntawm 2029, 800GBs thiab siab dua ZR / ZR + transceivers yuav suav nyiaj txog 70% ntawm kev lag luam sib koom.
2.Qhov kev ntawm cov saw siv: Ntsug sib koom ntawm lasers thiab geopolitics tsav kev hloov pauv
Ntsib nrog cov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom siv tsis txaus ntawm lasers, ntau dua thiab tswj cov khoom siv los yog kev koom tes nrog laser wafer filesories. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov khoom siv Suav kuj tseem nce sai nyob rau hauv lub nraub qaum-kawg ua lag luam tau nce txog li 20 xyoo thiab 202 txog li 60%. Hauv kev teb rau Geopolitical cov kev pheej hmoo thiab tariff pressures, kev tsim khoom thiab kev sib dhos ntawm kev hloov pauv hloov pauv, nrog sab qab teb hloov chaw, nrog sab qab teb chaw ua haujlwm tshiab los ua kev sib dhos tshiab. Kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis ntawm cov network tsim nyog yuav tsum muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntawm OEMS, cov chaw muag khoom lossis cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam qauv.
3.MCKinneys hu rau kev lag luam kev sib koom tes kom tiv thaiv cov fwjkaug los ntawm kev txhim kho AI
Hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm, McKinSey hu rau "Kev sib deev nrawm dua" ntawm txhua tog neeg hauv kev lag luam network. Plug-in modules tseem yuav ua ntxiv kom tau raws li qhov xav tau uas muaj kev txawj ntse vim tias lawv tau ua kev sib tw thiab tag nrho cov nqi ntawm cov tswv cuab cov txiaj ntsig. Txawm li cas los xij, raws li kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab kev ua tau zoo nce ntxiv, tawm cov thev naus laus zis xws li co-ntim optics (CPO) tau nrawm nrawm rau kev cuam tshuam rau kev ua lag luam. Qee qhov kev twv saib pom tias CPO tuaj yeem txo cov npe chaw siv hluav taws xob kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm 3.2 TBPs thiab dhau mus, ua rau muaj cov khoom siv kho tshiab tom ntej no. Ib qho ntxiv, vim tias kev sib xyaw ua ke Optics thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tuaj yeem tsim cov kev sib txuas lus zoo, thiab kev sib dhos ua ke hauv kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob, thiab sib xyaw ntawm cov khoom sib txuas hauv cov kab ke. Tsim cov qauv kev lag luam rau kev sib koom ua ke theem ntawm CPO yog qhov tseem ceeb los txhim kho CPO ntaus ntawv loo thiab nrawm CPO saws.